The Brink of War?

Last month, hostilities between the United States and Iran reached a crisis point. The situation became explosive after President Donald Trump ordered the killing of Major General Qassim Suleimani. He was Iran’s top military leader. The two nations are longtime foes. The move brought them close to war.

In January, the U.S. killed Suleimani with a missile fired by an American drone. At the time, Suleimani was leaving an airport in the neighboring nation of Iraq. Iran vowed to take “forceful revenge” for his death. The U.S. then sent 3,500 troops to the Middle East. Tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers were already stationed there.

Days later, Iran fired missiles at military bases in the Middle East that house U.S. troops. No one was killed. Afterward, both U.S. and Iranian leaders said they wanted the clashes to end. But the crisis made people around the world worry: Could the two countries be on the brink of war? Experts say tensions could escalate again.

Why have the U.S. and Iran long been at odds? What set off the recent clashes? And what could it mean for Americans? Keep reading to find out.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran go back decades (see “Key Moments,” below). Hostilities increased this past December. That was when a militia aided by Iran fired a rocket at a military base in Iraq. An American who was working there was killed. (Iran provides weapons and money for militias and terrorist groups across the Middle East.)

The U.S. responded by launching airstrikes on an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq and elsewhere. The airstrikes killed 25 fighters and wounded many others.

Leaders in Iraq and Iran were outraged. So were many of Iran’s allies in the region. Iraqi protesters then broke into the U.S. embassy in Iraq’s capital. Most of the protesters were members of militias supported by Iran. They burned part of the building.

After that, Trump ordered Suleimani’s killing.

Trump and his supporters say killing Suleimani was necessary to save American lives. The general led a part of the Iranian military that supports militias and terrorist groups in the Middle East. Through those organizations, he planned and carried out deadly attacks on enemy forces in the region, including U.S. troops. 

After Suleimani’s killing, Trump tweeted that the general had “killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time.” He also said the U.S. had evidence that Suleimani had been planning new attacks on Americans in the Middle East and that he “should have been taken out many years ago.”

Trump and his supporters say killing Suleimani was necessary to save American lives. The general led a part of the Iranian military that supports militias and terrorist groups in the Middle East. Through those organizations, he planned and carried out deadly attacks on enemy forces in the region. That included attacks on U.S. troops.

After Suleimani’s killing, Trump tweeted that the general had “killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time.” He also said the U.S. had evidence that Suleimani had been planning new attacks on Americans in the Middle East. Trump said Suleimani “should have been taken out many years ago.”

U.S. foreign policy experts and officials disagree about whether it was wise to kill Suleimani. Some experts and members of Congress applauded Trump’s decision. The world is safer without “its most accomplished and deadly terrorist,” wrote Michael Doran. Doran is a national security expert. He worked for former President George W. Bush.

But many other experts and U.S. officials disagree. They say targeting the general was extremely risky because Suleimani was highly respected in Iran’s government—and that taking him out was not worth the chance of sparking a war. A top Iranian official called the killing “an act of war.” He vowed to avenge it.

Also, many members of Congress say that the Trump administration has presented little evidence supporting its claim that Suleimani was planning attacks on Americans in the near future.

Most people in the U.S. say they do not want armed conflict with Iran. That is according to a 2019 poll. But after the general’s killing, “the threat of war was real,” says Kelsey Davenport. She is an expert on the U.S. relationship with Iran.

The majority of Americans also believe Suleimani’s killing has made the U.S. less safe. That is according to a separate poll conducted in January. 

The U.S. and Iran have a history of distrust. That is in part because the U.S. helped overthrow Iran’s democratically elected leader in 1953. Another reason is that the U.S. has long suspected Iran of developing nuclear weapons. That would make Iran a huge threat to U.S. allies in the region.

In 2015, the U.S., the European Union, and five other nations reached a major deal with Iran. Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program. In exchange, the U.S. and its allies lifted sanctions that had devastated Iran’s economy.

Many experts believed the deal was working. But in 2018, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement. He said Iran could not be trusted to uphold it. He reimposed sanctions against Iran. And he later ordered additional economic penalties. Trump’s goal was to force Iran to change its behavior in the Middle East and to make a better deal over its nuclear program. Those actions made Iran’s leaders furious. They insist they had been honoring the agreement.

Within days of Suleimani’s death, Iran declared that it would start taking steps that could allow it to produce a nuclear weapon. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are three of the nations that were part of the 2015 deal. They have been trying to convince Iran to stick with its original promise. They also want Iran and the U.S. to negotiate a new nuclear agreement.

Iran’s leaders have said their main goal is to get all U.S. forces out of the Middle East. In recent years, American troops have been stationed in Iraq. They are there to help defeat a terrorist group known as the Islamic State, or ISIS. After Suleimani’s killing in Iraq, Iraq’s government voted to kick U.S. troops out of the country. The government said the U.S. should not have launched the strike there. But it is unclear whether U.S. troops will leave Iraq—or when.

For now, the risk of armed conflict with Iran appears to be over. Iran has said it is done retaliating. And Trump has said he is “ready to embrace peace.” However, he did impose additional sanctions on Iran.

Still, the situation remains volatile. Iranian-backed militias in the Middle East could launch attacks of their own. And experts say Iran is likely to take part in cyberwarfare against the U.S. It has done so in the past. In 2013, for example, Iran hacked into the computer systems of some American banks. It caused their services to temporarily shut down. Also, tensions between Iranian and U.S. leaders could easily come to a boil once again.

“Iran has risen,” a top Iranian general declared in a televised address. “The whole world has seen our power,” he said. “We do not consider the conflict with the United States over.”